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Last August, Hurricane Irene spun through the Caribbean and parts of the eastern United States, leaving widespread wreckage in its wake. The Category 3 storm whipped up water levels, generating storm surges that swept over seawalls and flooded seaside and inland communities. Many hurricane analysts suggested, based on the wide extent of flooding, that Irene was a “100-year event”: a storm that only comes around once in a century.
However, researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every three to 20 years.
'100-Year Storms' May Happen Every 3 to 20 Years: MIT-Princeton Research
Seeded on Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:15 PM EST
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- Public Discussion (27)
Could, is the keyword here. Could or could not is what it should say.
How often have these climate models been correct?
- 1 vote
#1 - Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:17 PM ESTHow often have these climate models been correct?
Climatologist Phil Duffy led a group of researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California in analyzing the results of various climate models examining the occurrence of extreme high temperatures in the summer months of June, July and August. They found that higher than average spikes in temperature are becoming increasingly common in various regions of the lower 48 states.........Together with his colleague Claudia Tebaldi from the research group Climate Central, Duffy's computer models indicated that sweltering summer temperatures – once something of a rarity – can be expected in at least half of our summers before the middle of this century.
The researchers started out by comparing the quarter century between 1975 and 2000 with the preceding 25 years. They say that the recorded data corresponded with the predictions of some 16 global climate models, all of which indicated that high temperatures that were seldom in the earlier period occurred with greater frequency in the latter period in some regions.
Duffy's team claims the very similar results acquired from observations and computer models indicate that the models are, in fact, able to accurately simulate and predict changes in climate patterns. They also referred to statistical analyses to argue that the rising temperatures are most likely not a result of random variations in weather patterns.
- 3 votes
Oh, ok. So since they can make these models able to predict weather that has already happened they think that they are accurate about the future.
Not very convincing.
They know all the factors from the past. But they CAN NOT predict all of the factors for the future.
More storms and more severe storms? That's pure, undiluted, B.S.
Well not being too bright where all of these complicated matters are concerned I would say that physics and BS are related topics, eh?
- 2 votes
Only in the sense that physics is usually studied on the road to many Bachelor of Science degrees.
Physics is the branch of science concerned with the study of properties and interactions of space, time, matter and energy (in other words everything).
BS is what one hears from those who haven't studied physics and don't have the slightest idea how the physical world acts and interacts.
- 5 votes
Study: Virginia's Extreme Weather Becoming More Common, More Severe
New report says nine of 10 Virginians live in areas hit by recent weather extremes. Since 2006, Alexandria has experienced five federally declared weather-related disasters.
- 4 votes
#2 - Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:14 PM ESTStony -
The seed uses New York as an example, but as the heat builds, all storms will get bigger and more powerful . This is costing money even if you folks deny it, latest example :
Recalling the hail produced by some of last spring's violent storms, Volkswagen is spending about $5 million on a massive net to protect part of its car-loading yard at its Chattanooga plant.
http://timesfreepress.com/news/2012/feb/17/last-years-storm-damage-prompts-volkswagen-purchas/
- 3 votes
#3 - Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:47 PM ESTSo, it has never hailed there before?
Whats wrong with being prepared? Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it.
In that April storm, the National Weather Service recorded hail from 1 to 2 inches in diameter in Hamilton, Marion and Bradley counties and baseball-size hail in Sullivan County in upper East Tennessee
It's the baseball size that's becoming more common.
- 3 votes
Wow that would be a killer. Sure would hate to get caught outside with one of those.
- 1 vote
Every 3 to 20 years? Gave themselve a really neat margin for error didn't they?
- 3 votes
#4 - Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:49 PM ESTThe rewriting of what a 100 year event is . Split the difference between 3 and 20 ,11 years, what once came every 100 years, now comes every decade.
- 5 votes
Yawn... More grasping at straws by people who don't understand that a '100 year' storm is an AVERAGE. Sure you might get one 3 years a part and you might get them 197 years apart.
Its the same as flooding. If you live in a 30 year flood plain... you could have back to back floods or you might go 60-70 years and not be flooded. Its an AVERAGE.
- 1 vote
#5 - Sat Feb 18, 2012 1:36 AM ESTWTHO -
Its an AVERAGE.
No, it's a 100 Year Event. Which by definition, comes once in 100 years. That is to say, anything but average.
- 3 votes
CO Bob,
Good seed.
Scientific nomenclature looks odd to those who don't spend their lives in that arena. For clarification purposes, 'devastating storm surges would happen every 3 to 20 years' (instead of every 100 years) means that they see a very strong positive probability.
Scientists almost never say 'would' or 'will' - because that means something in excess of 95% probability. Sometimes more.
And now, these MIT scientists say this:
with added greenhouse gas emissions, the models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years
Someone above asks how reliable climate models are. Climate models are not only validated against historical records, they are compared to current events every single year. The latest update was just published. You can see the results here.
One can listen to the experts, or not.
- 4 votes
#6 - Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:37 PM ESTPhysicist,
Thanks for the link.
That is further proof that these climate models arent very accurate.
The graph clearly shows that they can not even predict past weather. A past in which they have every detail about. Yet the models still cannot get it right.
If they cant get the past in which they have all of the details, how can they possibly predict the future?
That is further proof that theseclimate models arent very accurate.
I guess that 95% confidence isn't good enough for everyone, Stoney. Are you 95% confident that you'll wake up tomorrow?
- 3 votes
Where do you get this 95% confidence from?
From this?
Everything has been baselined to 1980-1999 (as in the 2007 IPCC report) and the envelope in grey encloses 95% of the model runs.
Not the same, sorry.
Physicist-retired, thank you for taking the time to explain this to the great unwashed. Sure beats the heck out of *yawning*, too. Your willingness to share your knowledge, and expertise, is a great learning tool for us and this *us* is grateful.
- 3 votes
#7 - Sat Feb 18, 2012 3:44 PM ESTThanks, FIN. I was beginning to get a bit concerned, based on comments above.
Keep your sense of humor since most physicists seem to lose theirs somewhere along the line.
Watch this. It isn't long. In fact, get the whole series - all seasons, Simply put, it's good stuff.
And don't even get me started on 'A physicist, a mathematician, and an engineer walk into a bar...'. Because we have that completely covered.
- 3 votes
As for models, and how good they are. They made the wind tunnel obsolete, along with the need to test H-Bombs.
- 3 votes
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